Looking into the vacuum of history and observing all the events, various changes and revolutions in history starting with the late bronze age collapse in around 1177 and going all the way to the overturn of power that caused the end of the Soviet Union in the early nineties, we learn an interesting precedent. Nothing happens unless all the things that took place are in place to happen.
That’s a simple statement however it has relevance, the Bronze age collapse never would have occurred if the tribes migrating had ample food and supplies in their home countries. If the Trojan wars hadn’t happened maybe the Minoan civilization wouldn’t have collapsed. The French revolution may not have happened if The United States hadn’t succeeded from Great Britain or if the Marquis de Lafayette would have died in the US revolutionary war.
So what do the current circumstances tell us what’s possible in the future and what is impossible or unlikely? Well with a populist uprising it’s probably likely that the spread of nationalism will increase, however unlike the last great spread in the 1800s we don’t have a mostly free market in the west, so I’m not sure how nationalism will react with the proto socialist Europe and crony capitalist America. It is also if note what these nationalists do seem to want is more of a protectionist ideology where trade is decreased to protect the nations jobs in theory, this doctrine I don’t tend to follow and I take more of a Libertarian Free-Market stance and I think that is a healthier way to run an economy, however there is some grievances that the protectionists do have.
We also know that after the soon to be former US president Barack Obama’s two terms race relations have never been better, no really believe him, he is our emperor and knows best and can shape reality with mere words. Anyways these race issues are possibly the worst since the sixties and not just in the US but in Europe as well. The migrant crisis has showed our European cousins how hard it is to deal with multi racial countries like we’ve been trying to do since we signed the Declaration of Independence and it’s not easy, so I believe that this will cause significant problems throughout all of the west that accepts large amounts of migrants.
In the Far East, China seems to be, as usual, having problems with Japan and Taiwan. North Korea is still that mentally ill kid who sits in the back of the class building shivs out of tin cans and secretly plotting the death of the football quarterback who’s dating his sister South Korea. So business as usual. It is interesting though that with Trump’s and other protectionists policy on China and things like the TPP, I am curious how that will effect China’s responses with other countries in the east like India and South East Asia and with the west and Africa.
Africa seems, surprisingly the least likely to change, except for North Africa. Africa and South America seem to actually be on the rise which is quite an exciting prospect and their effect on the rest of the world will be. Chile’s recent economic policies have lead to a period of growth and expansion and I wouldn’t be surprised if they actually become the most prosperous country in South America.